A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
